Bell Curve Paradise

Loosely related to the Malthusian model- which has had its own ups and downs- the physical world's Standard Deviation Curve or "bell curve" construct of an improving-peaking-decadent cycle helps me think about the options. Looking forward to hearing which places in the world you think may be on the improving (up or left side of) The Curve. The obvious objection to the model is that the term "improving" is relative, subjective. Varies from individual to individual. Of course. But this doesn't change the basic premise that just because we ARE individuals, not herd animals- there is nothing in common. Everyone needs an individualized interpretation of a model that contributes to his personal and family development. There is no one size fits all formula. I think I'll copy Neil, in case of interest. He shows at least a cursory interest in the idea of living in a foreign clime. Something tells me it's not in the cards he holds- or rather wants to hold- but you never know.....

Despite diverse perceptions, I think there must be a number of models or frameworks on which to hang individual goals. I've thought a lot about this from living on 5 islands in Hawaii and owning land there- also in Costa Rica (both mountain and beach), Australia, all over California, etc.

An example of just one place that helped me focus on the cycle all places in the world, one way or the other, go through:

Margaret River, WA

When we moved from Rio 1995 it was clear how much individual perspective impacts on perceptions of the term "improvement". A strong contingent of surfies, mostly from over East, had migrated to "Margaret's" 20-25 years earlier, in the early 70's. Arriving, they discovered a wild and beautiful but economically depressed agricultural (mostly dairy) area and moribund logging industry past its prime in the growing, environmentally-regulated atmosphere. They also found the space and opportunity to make a New Life of their own. Quite different from the local multi generational farm households with which they eventually, after some hard fought battles, merged: Surfing and back to the land. A little pot growing and furniture and crafts helped pay the bills. There was tension as the so called "hippy" migrants (just a few were indeed hippies) moved in and occasionally got punched out at The Pub of a "Satiday Nite" by the sons of conservative local farmers. I fished a couple times with a local fishing legend-garmer, father of Kristian's best friend. Jim Neilson is a really great guy. Limited in his experience and outlook, but funny and surprisingly compassionate. He joked about punching surfer-"hippy" lights out in those long ago days when two cars on Main Street meant a "party" was in progress. Spread across 100km from one Cape to the other, the surfing/woodworking newcomers got together every few months for an open air potluck, music, dancing and to keep up the friendships which, to this day, continue to cohere their shared, 'migrant' histories.

Once, about 10 miles off the coast of Margaret River in a tiny boat, Jim- knowing I was the leader of the community association that held so much anti development power in those days- asked, "Bob, when you look along the coast, what do you see? See a lot of houses, buildings, etc, Bob?" (It was REAL hard to see very many houses, it's true.) I understood where he was coming from, immediately. "What you mean, Jim, is- what's the 'big deal'! Right?" "Right, Bob! What IS the big deal?" I said, "Tell you what, Jim. Let's grab a plane to California sometime. 10 miles off the coast, I reckon you'll see what the big deal IS!"

When we arrived, MR was just beginning an economic boom led by the vineyards which had moved in, mostly since the 80's. (The pioneering first one was in 1978) World class entertainment, hosted by one of the major vineyards once a year performed (Ray Charles, London Philhamonic, etc, etc). Galleries and coffee places popped up and the place had started to attract not only tourists from Perth and beyond, but retirees and well off professionals buying second homes. The economic spinnoffs, the rising real estate values, the 'growth'- all undeniable. The point is always- good and bad. Again, depends on perception.

But just as newly arrived "surfies" had once been confronted by an antagonistic, entrenched, farming community, they now found themselves resenting the arrival of the Next Wave: the "yuppies", the wine snobs, the high heel set, the metro crazies. The down home, rustic virtues they recognized within the farm economy when they came, and significantly altered as they merged- seemed to be slipping away. Effete coffee shops, prancing "Pethie" pooftas. Ugh.

That's when I arrived,.just as the wine and tourism movement began to take off. First thing I noticed: There were agricultural supply stores. To me it was important that the place was not just about surfing and wine. In the eyes of the surfies who had been there 20 years, what saved me, a Yank in a fancy car- were my surfing roots and connection with several of their leading lights (Ex: "Spider" Adrian, whom I'd spent some time with at the Salon Nautique in Paris, along with Maurice Cole, Victoria (and Tom Curren) guru shaper. This was a decade earlier when Spider was flogging the world's first feature length windsurfing movie.)

But I was caught between the surfers' last two decades of paradise, and the onslaught of wealth and a far broader, cosmopolitan and moneyed lifestyle. Surfers like Gary Keyes from New South Wales (see The Journal) explained their children would no longer be able to afford the land they had bought when they arrived in Margarets 20 years ago. The place was losing its rustic charm, being replaced by upscale this and that, and too many Perthies, including at their favorite breaks. A number of them were making plans to move out. South to Denmark, to Tassie (Tasmania) and even New Zealand's South Island.

But I saw LOTS of advantages to good, new restaurants, interesting visitors and increasingly, residents, from different countries, art galleries, chamber music, vertical tastings- you get the picture. I felt the essential character (hard to define, like "improvement") had not really changed. The money and hustle bustle were but a veneer over the still-pristine beauty of the place.

In other words, I saw the place "improving" through the addition of opportunities, both economic and cultural, to the already winning melange of farming community values, surfing, and an alternate culture lifestyle. Long time migrants did not agree. I saw their point, absolutely. I knew I'd have felt the same, had I arrived 20 years before to find "my" place in the world, only to see carpetbaggers invade and "destroy" its tranquil beauty.

In other words, I think some places in the world ARE 'improving', but this will always be in the eye of the beholder. Up to each of us to find our own particular combination. And hope to maintain the connection with not only our friends but with what has gone before.

Let me know what places you think are on the upswing? Be fun to test the model through someone else's eyes!

I agree. I've lived in a few, disparate places. Most seem more desperate now. We've both traveled widely. Most places you and I visited or lived in long ago have really not improved. Very much to the contrary. Population is key.

Among most places I know, all they really have in common is what my mother said to me 50 (FIFTY) years ago: "Bobby, there are just TOO MANY people!" If you had to pick out a single, salient factor that is ruining much of the world it is overpopulation. The balance between overpopulation and steady growth from a relatively low, undeveloped level seems key. A very difficult balance to find, it is.... The stagnation of a farm community that has been cradle to the grave essentially the same for the last 200 years lacks the dynamism, spontaneity and widespread sense of hope I crave.

So, I've always tried to find a place on the way up. Not on the way down, like 99% of the places we and our friends and families were born in, grew up in, vacationed at... Notice how often you hear complaints that these places are "just not the same"!"Everything has changed"....? Almost ALWAYS- definitely not for the better.

Places that at the time were wonderful that have degenerated are legion. I think of the Rio of the late 60's, when I returned between 1982-1995. And then... now. I'm sure you feel the same. Although the character of the marvelous city is essentially the same, the overpopulation and corruption and poverty-generated violence have taken some of the luster off a truly amazing, world-class spectacle of a city. Others I found wonderful that have gone steeply downhill include Lebanon, almost everywhere in Africa (Sudan, Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, South Africa, etc), California, Hawaii (all islands maybe less Molokai), the list goes on FOREVER...

But there DO remain a few pockets, scattered around the world. A FEW places mathematical probability suggests are actually getting better. The future, at least the immediate one, looks bright. While the REST of the world looks increasingly moribund. Decadent. Lost. Decaying, even when it is (presumably)"developing". Shanghai may be one, for a city, that at least until lately has been on the upswing. Florianopolis seems to have improved by most accounts since I lived there the end of the 70's. And large parts of Western Europe have not changed all THAT much. Primarily, again, because of low population growth and entrenched (read: authentic) cultural traditions.

But those that have improved seem to have done so despite the population overload. Certainly not because of it. So the key, to me, is WHERE on the standard deviation or "bell curve" is a given locale at the moment? Going up? Peaked? On its way down? Everything in nature, and humanity is obviously part of nature, follows this model. Temporary adjustments mean they can slide down, or run up briefly. The bell curve is not a smooth line, it's jagged, Wall Street like. What counts is the general path.

In the rest of the world, what specific parts of it give you hope? I am very interested to hear what you think.